gavinpurcell.com

I’ve been thinking a lot about TV lately. You can’t blame me, it’s what I get paid to do.

Earlier this week, a study revealed that for the first time (since the study had started) that the Broadcast Networks median viewer age was 50 or above. It was also the first time (since the study had started) that the median age was outside of the coveted 18-49 demographic which advertisers pay the most attention to. In other words, the networks are delivering more old people than young ones.

There are a couple problems with the story. One, the study has only been in effect for ten years. This is not a great sample size when dealing with an industry that fluctuates as much as TV does. Also, this number is the median and not an average which gets complicated but does change the story somewhat and (I think) lowers it slightly.

However, what I’m more interested in is a Freakonomics-esque approach to numbers like this, specifically in regards to audience size vs. age. I have a theory that the current aging of network television has less to do with a lack of interest by younger people in TV and more to do with the generation gap between the Boomers (all of whom now are nearing or past the 50+ mark) and Gen Y/Millenials (most of whom are under the 25+ mark).

I’m not a scientist nor do I have any hard numbers in front of me but I would imagine that the sheer numbers of Baby Boomers (some 76 million) have to be skewing this study older, specifically when you factor in the fact that most of the Millenials have yet to ‘graduate’ to network programming tastes (most of which I think are programmed for 25-49ers).

In fact, I propose that as those Millenials grow up, get families, and start to go through all the hassles of raising children that there will be a giant boom in TV viewing and that the broadcast networks, with their vast reach and marketing abilities (distribution may be easier but it’s harder to get people to notice stuff), will flourish once again as long as they’re making programming that speaks to that group. Part of the reason sitcoms worked so well in the 80s had to do with where the Boomers were in their lives - Family Ties, the Cosby Show, and every other family sitcom came from the fact that there were just a ton of people with young kids trying to figure out how to raise them.

Right now it’s hard. The networks are trying to program to an aging group of Boomers and a very cynical, smaller group of Gen-Xers that have ALWAYS been anti-media. Plus, there are just a lot less of us.

So what happens as Boomers move out of the picture, we (Gen-Xers) get older (into the 35-54 demo) and the Millennials start to take our place as the main viewers of Broadcast TV? Ratings will go up (more availible viewers) and average age comes down (younger age of availible viewers).

Not sure if all this is right or not, but I’m pretty sure the Broadcast Networks still have some life left in them.